Ever placed a bet and wondered why the potential winnings were set at that exact amount? Or maybe you want to start betting on odds, but feel overwhelmed by all of the numbers?
The thing is, odds aren’t just random numbers on your betting slip. They’re the key to making smarter bets and actually winning money long-term. Let me explain how it all works!
You can think of odds as the bookmaker’s way of saying two things at once: how likely something is to happen, and how much you’ll pocket if it does.
If you see Manchester United at 2/1 to win against Liverpool, that’s not just a random number. It’s telling you the bookies reckon United have roughly a 33% chance of winning, and you’ll get £2 profit for every £1 you stake.
Here’s a simple breakdown:
Here in the UK, bookies normally make use of fractional odds (like 2/1). But most betting sites let you choose your preferred odds format, and you might be met with others. I therefore want to touch on and compare the most typical ones:
| Odds format | Example | How to read | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fractional | 5/1 | Win £5 for every £1 staked | 16.67% |
| Decimal | 6.0 | Total return of £6 for every £1 staked (£5 profit + £1 stake) | 16.67% |
| American | +500 | Win $500 for every $100* staked (positive = underdog) | 16.67% |
Here’s a quick reference table:
| Fractional | Decimal | American | Probability | Returns on £10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/10 | 1.10 | -1000 | 90.91% | £11 (£1 profit) |
| 1/2 | 1.5 | -200 | 66.67% | £15 (£5 profit) |
| 1/1 (Evens) | 2.00 | +100 | 50% | £20 (£10 profit) |
| 2/1 | 3.00 | +200 | 33.33% | £30 (£20 profit) |
I know all of these numbers can seem daunting at first, but it’s really important that you don’t underestimate the importance of learning how it all works.
Think of understanding odds like learning to drive. You wouldn’t jump straight onto the M6 without knowing what the pedals do, right?
Too many beginners dive in to betting without grasping the basics of odds and therefore end up confused, frustrated, and usually out of pocket. Typical rookie mistakes include:
By actually understanding the odds of the bets you place, you can take more calculated risks and get a better overview of your potential returns.
When looking at odds, it’s all about calculating both the risk and potential return and making a decision based on the two.
The number you are presented with is actually a direct probability, and once you understand how betting odds work, it gets easier to spot value and make informed decisions. Here’s how you calculate it:
Did I lose you at the maths bit there? Sorry, I will now take it back a notch for those of us (me included) who don’t really feel like doing maths on the daily.
The truth is that you can still master the odds without doing any calculations at all, on your own, at least. That’s because you can make use of available tools such as a betting odds calculator to have the math done for you.
Simply find a calculator that matches your type of bet, plot in the odds, your stake, and any other necessary details and voilá, you’ll get your potential return and profit handed to you.
If you are not sure how much you want to stake, you can easily try different numbers in the calculator to find your preferred number. Once you have that ready, you can head to your bookie and start betting.
Now that you have a general idea of how odds work and how you can calculate their probability and return, I also want to share some expert tips for the more novice bettors.
Experienced punters know that successful betting isn’t about picking winners. It’s about finding value.
Value betting happens when you spot odds that are higher than they should be. If you reckon Liverpool has a 70% chance of beating Watford, but the odds suggest only 60%, you’ve potentially found value.
By familiarising yourself with the market and actually understanding the sport you are betting on, you can find the bets that can potentially bring you the most value.
Every bookmaker builds in a profit margin on their bets, which is usually around 2-5%. This is how they stay in business even when punters win, similar to how the house edge works in casino games.
Understanding this helps you spot which bookies offer the best value by adding lower margins. You can also look for promotions related to lowering margins/commissions on certain events.
This is an advanced technique that separates amateur punters from professionals. Closing Line Value measures how your bet odds compare to the final odds when the market closes.
To close off, I want to share my one final tip, which is also the most important one: No matter the odds, you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.
This might sound obvious, but if you come across some “really promising odds”, it can be easy to forget. But no matter what your gut feeling for an event is, you have to stick to your budget.
An each-way bet is really two bets in one: one part backs your selection to win, and the other part backs it to place (usually second, third, or even fourth, depending on the event and bookmaker). If your pick wins,…
If you’ve ever wandered into the world of horse racing, you might have stumbled upon the term “SP.” It’s one of those abbreviations that sounds important, but if you’re not clued in, it can feel like a secret code. Well,…
