What is The Gambler’s Fallacy?

When gambling at a land-based or online casino, most games come with totally random outcomes. This means that it is up to chance if you win or not, based on a sequence of random numbers to ensure fair play.

But even though the result of a game like Roulette or the winner of a grand jackpot is completely random, we sometimes tend to make up patterns that suggest the outcome of future events. This belief is called gambler’s fallacy, or gambler’s paradox – a term worth knowing about to ensure safe gambling.

In this article, we’ll take a look at what the gambler’s fallacy is and how you can avoid falling for its dirty tricks.

What Does Gambler’s Fallacy Mean?

To start off, let’s give a quick definition of what the gambler’s fallacy actually is:

The gambler’s fallacy is the (incorrect) belief that a past event will influence the outcome of a future event.

Not sure what it means? Let’s explain it a bit further.

The BBC published a short and informative video in which psychologist Steven Pinker explains why we see patterns in randomness. He explains that we, as humans, are often “too impressed by coincidences”.

Our brain is programmed to look further than what first meets the eye to see what is hiding under the surface. But sometimes, we take it a step too far and “see” things that aren’t actually there.

Apophenia

The tendency to see meaningful connections between completely unrelated things is called apophenia. In its essence, seeing patterns in randomness means seeing things that aren’t there.

This can become problematic in certain situations – particularly when it comes to gambling. The “patterns” can literally cloud our judgement and result in irresponsible, economical choices.

Gambler’s fallacy is a form of apophenia that is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances. No matter the term, it is all used to describe the same: the incorrect belief of an event occurring (or not occurring) based on past events, even though they have no connection.

Example: The Roulette Wheel

A clear example of the gambler’s fallacy is when players believe they know the future outcome of a roulette wheel based on the wheel’s past results.

The term “Monte Carlo fallacy” comes from this, with a famous example from the Monte Carlo casino in 1913. On August 18, a roulette game saw the ball land in a black pocket 26 times in a row. The probability of that happening is 1 in 66.6 million. Due to this, gamblers (incorrectly) thought that the streak would have to be followed by a long streak of red. But of course, it was a fully random – though highly unlikely – event.

If, for example, the roulette ball ends up in a red pocket six times in a row, this could suggest that “statistically”, it will do so again. But the truth is that each spin is totally unrelated to the previous ones and 100% random. Therefore, previous outcomes can’t be seen as a pattern, even though it seems like it.

If you bet on red with this belief, you might be lucky and get a win (as it is almost a 50% chance). But this does not prove your “hypothesis”. In the end, the roulette wheel has no memory or mechanism that acts upon patterns.

Example: Coin toss

Another common example occurs in coin tosses. Imagine flipping a coin five times and seeing heads come up each time. Many people would instinctively bet on tails next, thinking the sequence needs to “balance out,” even though the probability of heads or tails remains 50/50 on each flip.

The Gambler’s Fallacy in Everyday Life

The Gambler’s Fallacy doesn’t just apply to casino games; it’s a bias that shows up in many areas of everyday life. For example, some investors might believe that a stock that’s been dropping in value for weeks is “due” to rise, even if there’s no actual reason for the trend to reverse.

Similarly, people might assume that after several rainy days, sunny weather is bound to return, even when the forecast suggests otherwise.

Recognising the fallacy in these scenarios can help you make more rational decisions. Whether it’s financial planning or simply understanding random events, knowing that patterns in randomness are often misleading is a useful tool in everyday thinking.

How Casinos Amplify the Gambler’s Fallacy

Casinos use subtle techniques to amplify the effects of The Gambler’s Fallacy. For example, slot machines often display near-miss outcomes, where jackpot symbols line up just short of a win. These outcomes are random, but they create a powerful illusion that a win is imminent, encouraging players to keep spinning.

Roulette tables are another example. Many casinos display a history board showing the results of previous spins. While these outcomes are irrelevant to the next spin, they often lead players to bet based on patterns—such as doubling down on black after a streak of reds. This reinforces the belief that the game is predictable when it’s entirely random.

How to Avoid Falling into the Gambler’s Fallacy

There are many tips and strategies out there that are supposed to help gamblers, but nothing you do can guarantee a win. Blackjack and other types of poker are a few casino games where skill can increase your chances of winning. But in the end, the cards dealt are still 100% random.

For games like Roulette and all types of slot games, the result is always completely random. This is always the case, no matter the outcome of previous rounds.

So how can you avoid falling for the gambler’s fallacy and seeing things that aren’t there? Here are some of our best tips:

1. Make sure you understand the game before playing
   It is important that you understand the rules to play by, how wins are determined, the RTP etc. This way, you will know what your chances of winning are (in theory).
2. Do not let previous wins cloud your judgment
   Many games list previous wins or the results of previous rounds. Remember that these wins have nothing to do with your outcome. Don’t expect the exact same thing to happen again just because it has happened in the past.
3. Remember that it is all based on luck
   If you lose a round, you shouldn’t expect the next round to have the same result as the previous one and “chase your loss”. Similarly, if you win a game, you shouldn’t take it as a guarantee that you will win again. Consider each game/round independently and set your budget accordingly.

Don’t let this discourage you, but rather serve as a reminder of how random most forms of gambling are. Remember to never play for more money than you can afford to lose and play responsibly!

How to Develop a Rational Gambling Mindset

Understanding the Gambler’s Fallacy is only part of the equation. To truly avoid its effects, it’s important to adopt a rational mindset when gambling. This means shifting your focus from chasing wins to appreciating the randomness of the game.

For example, remind yourself that gambling outcomes are determined by probability, not streaks or patterns. Instead of trying to predict the “right” time to bet big, approach each round as an independent event. This perspective can help you make calmer, more informed decisions.

Additionally, view gambling as a form of entertainment with a cost, like going to the cinema or a concert. By keeping your expectations realistic, you’re less likely to fall into the trap of emotional betting based on fallacies.

Conclusion

Understanding the Gambler’s Fallacy is a key step in making smarter decisions while gambling, or even in everyday life. Whether it’s betting on roulette, flipping a coin, or choosing a lottery number, it’s important to remember that randomness has no memory. Each event is independent, and patterns in the past don’t influence outcomes in the future.

By recognising the fallacy and approaching gambling with a rational mindset, you can enjoy the experience for what it is, entertainment, without falling into the trap of chasing patterns or “balancing out” streaks.

The next time you find yourself thinking a win is “due,” take a moment to pause and remember: the only certainty in gambling is the randomness of the outcome. With this understanding, you’ll not only avoid costly mistakes but also gain a deeper appreciation for the games you love.