Strategy is a word that applies to almost everything we do. According to the Oxford English Dictionary, a strategy is “a plan that is intended to achieve a particular purpose”.
Any time there’s a goal and more than one way to reach it, there’s a strategy in play. Whether you’re planning how to decorate a Christmas tree, how to fish on an iced lake, or how to win at poker, you’re making decisions based on some kind of plan.
Gambling is no exception. Strategic thinking plays a big role in how people approach casino games, sports betting, poker, and more.
In this article, I’ll break down what a gambling strategy really is, the role of skill, and how to understand the difference between subjective choices and strategies based on maths and logic.
I’ll also look at how strategies can be classified, how choosing becomes a strategy, and why the so-called “optimal strategies” matter, without promising guaranteed success.
This article is written by Dr. Cătălin Bărboianu, a mathematician and researcher in the field of gambling science.
His work explores the role of probability, decision-making, and strategy in gambling, with a focus on helping players understand the theory behind the games.
A gambling strategy is a set of rules or guidelines that a player follows to achieve a pre-established goal. In traditional skill games like chess, go, video games, or sports, the goal is usually to beat your opponent. These are often called strategic games because the outcomes depend heavily on the player’s skill and tactical decisions.
But gambling is different. In games of chance, luck plays the dominant role. Whether you’re betting in a casino, on sports, or playing poker, your “opponent” is typically the house. Beating the house doesn’t mean the same thing as beating an opponent in chess. Winning might mean walking away with a profit after a single session, making a profit over time, or simply enjoying the thrill. Because every player has a different goal, strategy is highly personal.
For example, one player might want to preserve their bankroll for as long as possible to maximise entertainment, while another might pursue the biggest possible win in a short time. Both can have a strategy, but they won’t follow the same rules. A gambling strategy, then, is a set of rules one may follow to obtain any perceived or actual advantage, either over the house or over other players in games like poker, that could lead to a monetary gain per one’s own expectations.
When we talk about gambling skills, we’re referring to a player’s ability to carry out cognitive tasks that support strategic play. These skills include memorisation, calculation, recognising patterns, and interpreting behavioural cues. While a strategy is the plan, skills are the tools needed to execute that plan well. Interestingly, correctly applying a strategy can itself be considered a skill.
In general, being well-informed about a game, its rules, mechanics, technical aspects, and statistical tendencies is a skill in itself, and one that supports the use of more effective strategies.
Because gambling goals vary so widely, strategies are often tailored to the individual. A subjective strategy is one that’s built on personal preferences, beliefs, or habits. An objective strategy, by contrast, is based on widely applicable logic and rational goals.
Let’s consider some examples of subjective strategies:
These strategies are shaped by personal criteria, not by general principles.
In contrast, an objective strategy ignores personal quirks and focuses on rational, attainable goals:
An objective strategy must be grounded in either general rationality or mathematically confirmed methods. Subjective strategies often reflect irrational beliefs, superstition, or misconceptions, like the Gambler’s Fallacy (believing that past outcomes influence future ones in purely random games).
The act of choosing is central to all forms of gambling. You choose which game to play, which bets to place, and how long to play. Sometimes, choosing is the only form of strategy available, especially in games where the outcome is purely random, such as lottery, Keno, or slots.
Although you can’t control the outcome, you can still optimise your choices to give yourself better theoretical value. Understanding when your choices are meaningful and when they’re just habits or superstitions is key to thinking strategically.
Many players are searching for the perfect way to beat the house. But let’s be clear: no strategy, no matter how well-executed, can guarantee monetary success in gambling. That said, an optimal strategy is the closest thing to an objectively better way to play.
The term “optimal” comes from game theory and probability. An optimal strategy is mathematically proven to perform better than all other strategies in a given game under specific conditions. It’s designed to optimise something, such as expected value, long-term profit, or minimised loss.
Let’s look at where this applies:
Using an optimal strategy doesn’t eliminate the role of luck – it just puts you in the best possible position over the long term. But note: not all games allow for an optimal strategy. In roulette or scratch cards, all options are equally random, and no strategy can give you a mathematical edge. In these cases, the best you can do is manage your risk.
Many players use the term “strategy” loosely to describe how they play. But that doesn’t make their approach more effective or rational. The only strategies proven to offer a statistical advantage are optimal ones, and even those don’t guarantee a win.
Strategy in gambling is often misunderstood. Plenty of online guides promote betting systems and strategic hacks without explaining the limits of those approaches. Following a personal or mathematical strategy adds to the enjoyment of gambling. But poor strategic advice and false expectations can fuel unhealthy behaviour and lead to problem gambling.
Understanding gambling strategy isn’t just useful – it’s part of responsible gambling. Whether you’re experimenting with your own ideas or following expert-backed methods, being aware of what strategy can and cannot do is key to keeping your play informed, realistic, and enjoyable.
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